Thursday, November 23, 2006

Lebanon assasination, who done it?

Haaretz, the Israeli newspaper, has an interesting article on the latest asasination of "anti Syrian" politician in Lebanon.

The article, Round up the usual suspects says:

However pure political and diplomatic logic makes it difficult to see Damascus behind the assassination. The day he was killed, Syria chalked up one of its most significant diplomatic achievements since its defeat in Lebanon in April 2005: the renewal of full diplomatic relations with Iraq.

Syria is also on its way to achieving a semi-official stamp of approval from Washington as an entity capable of calming tensions in Iraq. Syria could have been on the verge of an important political success in Lebanon - the possible fall of Fuad Siniora's government, which would mean Syria could increase the power of its supporters in the government by means of the Hezbollah ultimatum. If that came about, the international tribunal on the murder of Rafik Hariri would be delayed, or at least be of a sort convenient for the Syrians. With three such achievements, the last thing Damascus needed was a new accusation of a political murder in Lebanon.

It goes on to make the conclusion

One of the Syrian intelligence organizations might have been behind the act, as revenge on those it deems responsible for the bashing it will take at an international tribunal. If that is true, it puts Syrian president Bashar Assad in an embarrassing position, with elements of his regime working behind his back.

The assumption and statement of the facts that this assasination doesn't serve Syria seems logical. The conclusion, however, is rather strange. It assumes that there is no one else other than Syria in the middle east.

You have Israel with completely opposite interest to Syria. Furthermore, they have demonstrated in their bombing of Lebanon that their intention is to create civil confict in Lebanon to create an alternative front for the Shiites and Hizbollah. As such, it seems to me the probabilty of Israel to be behind the assassination is much higher that that of a rogue element in Syrian intelligence service, or for that matter anyone esle. Essentially, if you are "anti Syrian" politician in Lebanon, your greatest worry is if Israel decided your blood is needed for its purposes.

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